Description
PLEASE READ DIRECTIONS CAREFULLY AND THE TASKS ARE THE END OF DESCRIPTION
Description:
Assume that you are a consultant to a well-known company which has a diversified business with a presence in different industries and geographical markets. You are asked to analyse the Caravan customer dataset of an insurance company. The dataset was supplied by a Dutch Data Mining Company – Sentinel Machine research. The challenge is based on a real-world business scenario.
Data:
Information about customers consists of 86 variables
▪ 43 socio-demographic variables derived via the customer’s ZIP area code,
▪ 43 variables about ownership of other insurance policies.
Data Size:
▪ 9822 records: 5822 training records and 4000 test records.
86 attributes
Challenges:
The data analytical task is to predict whether a customer is interested in a caravan insurance policy from the data. You should first do some exploratory data analysis. Visualising the data should give you some insight into certain particularities of this dataset. Then prepare the data for data mining. It will be important to select the right features, and to construct new features from existing ones. Try out at least three different data mining algorithms.
The second challenge is to derive information about the profile of a typical caravan insurance buyer to give a clear insight to why customers have a caravan policy and how these customers are different from other customers.Feature selection and extraction will be very important. You need to find out if data is noisy or unbalanced.
Ensure that the analysis, the critical arguments and conclusions contained in the report are supported by the evidence. The descriptions and interpretation must be comprehensible, useful and actionable for a marketing professional with no prior knowledge of technical jargon. The value of a description is inherently subjective.
Assessment Details:
Task 1
– Knowledge Discovery Process in Databases (KDD): Give an overview of
the KDD chosen for the challenge. [10 marks]
Task 2
– Databases (DB): The provided data and data dictionary should be
explored in the group’s MySQL database. Access the database using the
following details:
Parameter Value Example for group 7
Connection name: [g23_][your group number] g23_07
Hostname: cp-vms-ts1-01.surrey.ac.uk
Username: [g23_][your group number] g23_07
Password: [g23_][your group number][.] g23_07.
Default Schema: [g23_][your group number] g23_07
1. You should “combine” the test data with its target column by using SQL.
2. Furthermore, you need to “combine” the training and test data. So, that
you can later introduce new training and test data splits.
The following questions need to be answered using SQL aggregation functions:
3. What is the distribution of the target field?Principles of Analytics
4. How many people have purchased a boat and caravan policy together? [10 marks]
Task 2
– Prediction (classification) of who would be interested in buying a
caravan insurance. At least one model and one algorithm need to be explained
using SPSS Modeler. Similarly, at least one model and one algorithm need to be
explained using R. The quality measures (e.g. derived from confusion matrix) and
their implications have to be explained. Balancing data can be considered (or
rejected with an argument). Test data and training data (re)considerations can
be given. A comparison of models may be needed. An understanding of the data
modelling and chosen techniques has to be demonstrated. Generally, evidence
that supports analysis and prediction is desired. A clear structure and coherent
argument throughout, offering reasonable support for the recommended model
by using Return-On-Investment (ROI) analysis should be given. Presentation level
should be targeting the marketing team. [30 marks]
Task 3
– Profile of a caravan insurance buyer. An understanding of the caravan
insurance customer needs to be demonstrated. Functional rules that can be used
by the marketing team to target the right customers should be provided. Robust
recommendations/conclusions to target a potential caravan customer should be
given. [10 marks]
Please follow all directions carefully
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