Description
Your Personal Example and Instructions for Completing the AssignmentBefore you decide on a topic, generate a list of several topics that might be appropriate for this assignment. For each topic, conduct a brief survey of the information available. Specifically, verify that probability estimates on the topic are available from a reputable source [i.e., the American Congress of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC)]. Bookmark these sites for later reference because they must be included in your essay.After you have verified that you will be able to find probability estimates on your topic, briefly explain the relevant background and context for your decision. Explain the circumstances, and your options, and provide probability estimates of likely outcomes. For each estimate, include a full citation for the source of the probability information so that I can access it if needed. Most importantly, clearly explain what the probability estimates mean in words. Correctly interpreting the numerator (i.e., the number of outcomes classified as A) and the denominator (i.e., the total number of possible outcomes) of the probability ratio is critically important. Improper use of probability estimates is common because many people fail to understand what the numbers in the ratio represent. For example, many people cannot accurately explain what the percent chance of rain means when they check the weather! (Can you? It’s more difficult than you may think!)Finally, conclude your essay with an explanation of your decision given the probability information you considered. Remember, I will not judge your decision as right or wrong. I will merely examine whether you have presented a logical, well-thought-out argument in support of your choice.
