Description
It is important for project management professionals to be able to review numbers and report on what they are saying. It is also important for you, as a project manager, to be able to use software that helps you keep timelines and keep the project running on time and smoothly. This assignment will continue to help prepare you for your responsibilities.
You are a project manager who has successfully completed the project from Topics 2 and 3. A program manager from another division is aware of your familiarity and success with the Technology Refresh Project. He has asked you to perform a schedule risk analysis on a different Technology Refresh Project (i.e., the Technology Refresh [Version B] Project), which is based on your project from Topics 2 and 3. In fact, the project tasks are the same, only the durations and the critical paths are different. (Note: Your project files from Topics 2 and 3 are not relevant to this assignment.)
Perform a schedule risk analysis for the Technology Refresh Project (Version B) by completing the following:
Open the attached “Project Risk Assessment Problems Template.” Take note of the project information, including the expected durations and the tasks that are on the critical path.
Calculate the following:
1. The expected project finish time.
2. The variances for the applicable tasks.
3. The total critical path variance.
4. The total critical path standard deviation.
The customer has seen the Technology Refresh (Version B) Project schedule and the expected project finish time. However, the customer is concerned about the schedule risk of the project. Therefore, he wishes to know the following (i.e., determine the following):
5. The probability of finishing the project in 287 days.
6. The probability of finishing the project in 273 days.
Hint: Before answering the questions, review the “PERT Variance and Probability of Project Completion” video, located in the Topic 4 Resources.
7. If you wish to solve probabilities of finishing using the Z-value approach, refer to “Table E – The Standard Normal Distribution,” located in the Topic 4 Resources.
8. Note also that Microsoft Excel’s NORM.DIST function can be used to determine the probabilities of finishing, which does not require use of the Z-table.
Submit the completed file, “Project Risk Assessment Problems Template” (i.e., MS Excel file), ensuring your last name is included in the filename.
APA style is not required, but solid academic writing is expecte
Unformatted Attachment Preview
MGT-640 Project Risk Assessment Problems Template
ID
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
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10
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78
79
Optimistic Duration
Task
(days)
TECHNOLOGY REFRESH (VERSION B) PROJECT
Initiating
Meet with key stakeholders
2
Finalize statement of work
2
Secure project team leads
2
Finalize stakeholder register
2
Develop project charter
2
Finalize project charter
2
Planning
Scope Planning
Requirements
10
Develop/finalize functional requirements
12
Develop/finalize hardware requirements
10
Develop/finalize software requirements
11
Develop/finalize requirements traceability matrix
2
Finalize project deliverables
4
Develop scope statement
2
Finalize/Update WBS
Schedule (Time) and Cost Planning
2
Finalize hardware/software costs
6
Update activities and duration estimates
Human Resource Planning
6
Finalize resource requirements
4
Finalize project costs
2
Identify training requirements
6
Complete training activities
Quality Planning
2
Determine impacted quality processes
2
Finalize quality management plan
Risk Planning
3
Update project risks
2
Draft risk register
2
Finalize risk management plan
Finalize Project Plan
2
Finalize communications management plan
2
Finalize procurement management plan
2
Finalize stakeholder management plan
2
Finalize project schedule/cost baseline
2
Finalize project plan
2
Obtain approval for project plan
Executing
Hardware
10
Procure hardware from suppliers
Software
6
Obtain software OS licenses
6
Obtain software application licenses
Pilot Testing
1
Setup test area
4
Load software onto pilot machines
3
Validate functionality
Deployment
10
Configure production hardware
11
Deploy production hardware
12
Load software to deployed hardware
Testing
4
Validate startup on deployed hardware
4
Perform OS testing
4
Perform application testing
6
Obtain formal sign-off from users
Monitoring and Controlling
Formal Customer Review 1
1
Hold formal customer review after project plan approval
4
Update project plan
Formal Customer Review 2
5
Obtain updates regarding key deliverables from project team
5
Hold formal customer review after pilot testing
4
Update project plan
Closing
External
5
Finalize procurement with suppliers
Customer Approval
1
Hold final customer review
3
Prepare/submit final customer report
3
Audit against contractual deliverables
2
Obtain final customer approval
Internal
1
Hold lessons learned meeting
4
Update final internal report
1
Hold project team celebration event
Most Likely Duration
(days)
Pessimistic Duration PERT Expected
(days)
Duration (days)
Critical Path
3
10
2
10
5
4
12
15
4
13
17
8
4
10
2
9
7
4
√
√
18
16
16
14
2
9
3
28
18
30
28
3
10
5
18
16
17
16
2
8
3
√
4
12
5
14
4
11
√
10
11
4
12
14
19
5
14
10
11
4
11
√
√
3
10
4
18
3
10
√
6
3
4
12
8
7
7
4
4
√
3
6
2
13
5
4
4
14
5
19
16
7
3
7
3
12
6
4
√
√
24
32
23
√
11
8
20
17
12
9
√
2
6
6
2
8
8
2
6
6
√
25
19
17
33
23
19
24
18
17
√
√
√
9
8
19
17
18
17
28
24
10
9
18
16
√
3
10
4
20
3
11
√
18
7
8
22
11
15
17
7
9
√
√
18
24
17
2
6
5
3
2
10
8
4
2
6
5
3
1
6
1
1
12
2
1
7
1
Variance
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
Total Critical
Path Variance:
days
Total Critical Path Standard Deviation:
days
Expected Project Finish Time:
days
Probability of finishing the project in
287
days is
or
%
Probability of finishing the project in
273
days is
or
%
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