Apple Interim project

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Chapter 10. The TradeOff on Dividend Policy

Objective: To examine how much cash your firm has returned to its stockholders, in what form (dividends or stock buybacks), and to evaluate whether the trade-off favors returning more or less cash.

Key Steps: 1.Examine how much your company has paid in dividends over time, both in absolute terms and relative to its market value of equity and net income.

2. Evaluate, given the tradeoffs on dividends, whether your firm should be a high dividend paying, a low dividend paying, or a non-dividend paying firm.

Framework

For Analysis: 1.Historical dividend policy

a. Obtain the dividends paid by your firm, both in aggregate terms and on a per-share basis. Also, apportion these dividends into ordinary and special dividends each period.

b. Estimate the proportion of net income paid out as dividends (dividend payout ratio) over the period as well as dividends as a percentage of the market value of equity (dividend yield).

2.Firm characteristics

a. Dividend clientele. Based on the breakdown of who holds stock in your firm, make a judgment on whether these investors would be receptive to dividends.

b. Dividend signaling. Given the different options available to your firm to convey information to financial markets, assess the role that dividends will play in the process.

c. Future financing. Given your firm’s growth prospects, its need for future financing, its use of debt, and its access to capital, evaluate how much of the current earnings/cash flows can be paid out as dividends, at your firm.

d. Debt covenants. Evaluate the constraints, if any, put on dividend policy by the lenders, bondholders, and any other claim holders in the firm. Also examine whether there are statutory or regulatory requirements for dividend policy (minimum dividend requirements and maximum dividend limits).

e. Overall assessment. Given your overall assessment of the pluses and minuses of paying dividends, make a judgment on whether you would expect your firm to be a big, small, or a non-dividend payer.

Important Points:

• Continue the formal report created for the in the first interim submission. Be sure to summarize your findings in each section (chapter) and create a separate tab in the accompanying Excel workbook for each section that provides detailed calculations used in your analysis summary.

• Indicate the sources of information used in each section of your analysis. Provide screenshots of data gathered in Bloomberg and/or Thomson.

Deliverables:

• A report that summarizes your findings in a Word document.

• Excel spreadsheet of calculations with separate worksheet calculations for each chapter.


Unformatted Attachment Preview

Apple Inc. (AAPL)
First Interim Project – Financial Analysis
Table Of Contents:
Section I : Company Background Analysis




Company Background
Company Overview
Operating Segments of the Firm
Financial Performance and Strategy
Section II : Corporate Governance Analysis
● Corporate Analysis
● Financial Markets
● Society and other Stakeholders
Section III: Stockholder Analysis
● Stockholder Composition
● Risk Profiling
● Risk Measures
Section IV: Risk and Return Analysis




Estimated Risk-Free Rate and Equity Risk Premium
Estimated Relative Risk
Estimate Default Risk and Cost of Debt
Estimate Cost of Capital
Section V : Estimating Earnings and Cash Flows
● Typical Investment
● Investment Decision
Section I : Company Background Analysis
Company Background
Steve Jobs, who passed away in 2011, alongside Steve Wozniak, established Apple in
1976 in the Santa Clara Valley of California. They had a belief that there was a market demand
for computers. During Jobs’ initial sales effort, they received an order for 50 units. Working out
of his garage, they developed the Apple I. They sold it without a monitor, keyboard, or casing.
Unfortunately, Steve Jobs was eventually ousted from the company, and Apple never achieved
the level of sales as the IBM PC. However, Apple gained recognition for its influence and
user-friendly experience, which allowed it to establish a presence in education, publishing, and
various creative industries.
It was in the 1990s that Jobs returned to Apple when it faced financial challenges. He
made changes by streamlining their product lineup and introducing visually appealing Macintosh
computers. This was followed by the iPod music player, which paved the way for the successful
iPhone and iPad tablets. Over two billion devices running on Apple’s iOS have been sold
worldwide. While Android devices have surpassed iPhone sales in numbers, Apple’s premium
pricing strategy has driven sales figures and profitability.
In 2011, Steve Jobs tragically lost his battle with cancer. Since then, Tim Cook has taken
over as his successor. Continues to lead the company.
Company Overview
Apple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets,
wearables, accessories, related software, services, peripherals, and networking solutions. It sells
its products worldwide through its online stores, retail stores, direct sales force, third-party
wholesalers, and resellers. Apple is known for its famous iPhone, the company’s line of
smartphones based on its iOS operating system. The company recently released its iPhone 15
product line in September of this year. Other Apple products include Mac computers and iPad
tablets, Apple Music, the Apple Watch, and other wearable devices. It includes AppleCare,
Cloud Services, Digital content, and Payment services (ApplePay). Apple has entered
entertainment with the Apple TV streaming service, and more than 60% of Apple’s revenue
comes from outside the Americas.
Operations
Apple relies on their iPhone product for over 50% of sales, while other hardware
products, such as the Mac desktop, notebook computers, and iPad tablets, account for roughly
10% each. Services, which include the App Store, iCloud, Apple Music, and Apple Pay mobile
payment, are the second biggest revenue producer with nearly 20% of sales. The Wearables,
Home, and Accessories segment, which includes the AppleWatch and HomePod, accounts for
about 10% of sales.
The company’s operating systems are:
● iOS for mobile devices.
● MacOS for computers.
● Apple WatchOS for the watch.
● iPadOS for the iPad.
Apple outsources all production to contractors in Asia, while some Mac components are
made in the US and Ireland.
Geographic Reach
Apple is based in Cupertino, California, and it generates more than 40% of sales in the
US; meanwhile, Europe and Greater China contribute a quarter of its revenue of about 20% .
Japan also represents less than 10% of its revenue.
The company has facilities and land for corporate functions, R&D, data centers, retail,
and other purposes at locations throughout the US and in various places outside the US.
The company sells its products and resells third-party products in most of its major
markets directly to consumers, small and mid-sized businesses, education, enterprise, and
government customers through its retail stores, website, and direct sales force. The company also
employs a variety of indirect distribution channels, such as third-party cellular network carriers,
wholesalers, retailers, and resellers. Direct and indirect channels accounted for over 35% and
nearly 65% of Apple’s sales.
Financial Performance and Strategy
Apple’s performance for the past five years has experienced year-on-year growth, with
2022 as its highest-performing year. Its net sales increased by 7.79%, or $28.511 billion, to
$365.8 billion in fiscal 2021 compared to $274.5 billion in fiscal 2020. The increase was driven
by growth in all Products and Services categories. Furthermore, the company’s net income
increased by $5.1 billion to $99.8 billion in fiscal 2022 compared to the previous year’s net
income of $94.7 billion. Cash held by the company up to the quarter ending June 30, 2023,
amounted to $62.482B, a 29.55% increase year-over-year. Cash provided by operations was
$22.998B (a 0.34% decline year-over-year). Investing activities used 15.775B (a 3% decline
year-over-year), respectively. Main cash uses were for marketable securities purchases and
common stock repurchases.
Apple’s financial performance has been vastly influenced by the strategy they have been
using. The year-over-year growth in R&D expenses in 2021 was driven primarily by increases in
headcount-related fees. The company believes that focused R&D investments are critical to its
future growth, competitive position in the marketplace and the development of new and updated
products and services central to its core business strategy. Apple’s direct and indirect competitors
include Samsung, Dell Technologies Inc., HP Inc., Sonos Inc., and more.
Because the industries in which the company competes are characterized by rapid
technological advances, its ability to compete successfully depends heavily upon its ability to
ensure a continual and timely flow of competitive products, services, and technologies to the
marketplace. The company continues to develop new technologies to enhance existing products
and services and expand its offerings through research and development (“R&D”), licensing of
intellectual property, and acquisition of third-party businesses and technology.
In our Excel file, we have included a comps screen showing how Apple stacks up against
its peers on a revenue and profitability basis.
Section II : Corporate Governance Analysis
Voting Structure
As reported on Apple’s latest 10-Q, 15,634,232,000 shares of Apple’s common stock
were issued and outstanding as of Q3 2023. Unless otherwise indicated, all persons named as
beneficial owners of Apple’s common stock have sole voting power and investment power
concerning the shares displayed as beneficially owned.
Ownership Structure
Since Apple Inc. is a traded company, its ownership lies in the hands of its shareholders.
The two prominent institutional investors that hold stakes in Apple Inc. are the Vanguard Group
and BlackRock, Inc. Additionally, notable individuals such as Art Levinson, Tim Cook, Bruce
Sewell, Al Gore, and Johny Sroujli are among the company’s shareholders.
Top Shareholders
Vanguard Group Inc.
Vanguard Group owns more than 1.3 billion shares of Apple, representing 7.83% of total
shares outstanding as of Dec. 28, 2020. Vanguard is primarily a mutual fund and ETF
management company with about $6.2 trillion in global assets under management (AUM).
BlackRock Inc.
BlackRock owns 1.11 billion shares of Apple, representing 6.60% of total shares
outstanding. BlackRock is primarily a mutual fund and ETF management company with
approximately $8.67 trillion in AUM as of Dec. 31, 2020.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
Berkshire Hathaway owns more than 1 billion shares of Apple, representing 5.96% of
total shares outstanding as of Dec. 28, 2020. Led by billionaire investor Warren Buffett,
Berkshire Hathaway is a diversified holding company with investments in a broad range of
industries, including insurance, railroads, gas and electric utilities, and more.
Management
CEO: Tim Cook
Tim Cook owns 837,374 shares of Apple stock, representing 0.02% of all outstanding
shares. Cook rose to CEO of Apple in 2011 after the death of founder and longtime CEO Steve
Jobs. Cook arrived at Apple in 1998 and was the chief operating officer responsible for all
worldwide sales and operations.
COO: Jeff Williams
Jeff Williams, the Chief Operating Officer at Apple, owns 489,260 shares of Apple stock
as of Dec. 28, 2020. Mr. Williams, 57, oversees Apple’s global operations and the development
of Apple Watch and Apple’s health initiatives. After joining Apple in 1998, Mr. Williams held
previous positions, including Senior vice president, Operations, and Head of Worldwide
Procurement. Before joining Apple, Mr. Williams worked in several roles at IBM from 1985 to
1988.
Board Members
1. Arthur D. Levinson (since 2000) — Chairman of the Board, Apple. Former Chairman
and CEO, Genentech.
2. James A. Bell (since 2015) — Former CFO and Corporate President, The Boeing
Company.
3. Tim Cook (since 2011) — CEO, Apple Inc.
4. Albert Gore Jr. (since 2003) — Former Vice-President of the United States.
5. Alex Gorsky (since 2021) — Chairman and CEO, Johnson & Johnson.
6. Andrea Jung (since 2008) — President and CEO, Grameen America.
7. Monica Lozano (since 2021) — President and CEO, College Futures Foundation.
8. Ronald D. Sugar (since 2010) — Former Chairman and CEO, Northrop Grumman.
9. Susan L. Wagner (since 2014) — Co-Founder and Director, BlackRock.
Financial Markets
Trading and Liquidity
Average Volume
58.32m
Shares Outstanding
15.63bn
Free Float
15.62bn
P/E (TTM)
28.69
Market cap
2.67tn USD
EPS (TTM)
5.95 USD
Annual div (ADY)
0.96 USD
Annual div yield
0.56 %
Society and Other Stakeholders
Apple Inc. is a(n) Computers, Phones, and household Electronics company headquartered
in the United States of America. For the fiscal year ending in September 2020, AAPL.O received
an ESG score of 73.09 (Grade: B+).
Over the last five years, the company has had an average ESG score of 68.32 and a
median ESG score of 68.79. Refinitiv ESG score is calculated as a sum of weighted individual
pillar scores. For AAPL.O, Environmental, Social, and Governance pillars are weighted 23.04%,
49.31%, and 27.65%, respectively, in ESG score weighting, consistent with companies within the
Computers, Phones, and Household Electronics industry groups.
AAPL.O’s controversy score of 2.94 (Grade: D-) is calculated based on the total count of
controversies related to the company, as collected by the Refinitiv ESG team and normalized
based on the company’s market capitalization. Discounted by its controversies, AAPL.O received
an ESG Combined score of 38.01 (Grade: C) for the year.
Section III: Stockholder Analysis
Stockholder Composition
The company’s general investor base includes institutional investors, retail investors, and
insiders. Among them, institutional investors hold majority ownership of AAPL through the
60.99% of the outstanding shares they control. This interest is also higher than almost any other
company in the telecommunications equipment industry. (CNN Business, 2023).
Marginal Investor
Then some Individual investors are considered as marginal investors. They are some speculative
traders, retail investors, and opportunistic investors who buy and sell the shares based on price
movement, market speculations, trends, and news. They mostly do not have adequate financial or
investment knowledge nor do they have enough information about the fundamentals of the
organization. They invest based on the hype or right before the announcement of dividend
distributions. They usually invest for the short term and do not share any ties with the company.
But their buy and sell decisions affect the share prices (Michelon et al., 2020).
Insider Stockholders
Apple Inc. does have some insider shareholders also. The insiders from the company hold around
100 Million outstanding shares out of the total number of 15 billion shares outstanding. The
insider shareholdings are quite significant in the organization as they are worth around $20
billion. Appe’s insider holders are the powerful authorities who run the company management
such as the chairman, CEO, COO, CFO, and other high ranking executives. This insider holding
gives them significant authority in the decision-making of the company and also assures the
average and marginal investors that the management is also personally invested in the outcome
of the company and will try their best to maximize the profit of the shares and run the finances of
the company quite well (Harper, 2019).
Risk Profiling
Technological risks play a role as Apple must continuously innovate and adapt to stay out of
competition and avoid technological obsolescence. Financial risks include the company’s capital
and investment portfolios alongside the potential for changing regulations and market volatility.
Operational risks involve navigating the complexities of supply chain management, production
capabilities, and logistics to secure operations. Compliance with frameworks, policies, and
norms across different regions presents regulatory and compliance risks on a global scale for
Apple. Lastly, strategic risks encompass the company’s direction by emphasizing diversification
market penetration strategies that align with evolving market trends and consumer preferences.
Firm-Specific Risks
The products of Apple Inc. are highly complex and technology-reliant, so there will always be a
risk of the failure of their product or services. Being a global company, they always have to
maintain a large and well-organized global supply chain. If the chain is disrupted by any natural
reason or reasons like worker strikes, the business will face turmoil. Different countries have
different kinds of regulations. Sometimes they sanction other countries and their products. This
is also a very impactful risk. Lastly, technological products are always backed by intellectual
properties like patents, trademarks, copyrights, etc. Otherwise, cloning or copying is always an
ever-existing risk (Khan et al., 2015).
Industry Specific Risks
The industry-specific risks are a little different. The technology industry will always face
cut-throat competition from both small and large companies and this affects the product price
and makes it difficult to maintain margins. Technologies are always upgrading and changing, if
the firms do not invest more in R&D and innovate new things, they will fall behind. Also, the
global economy affects this industry more than any other as these products and services are
considered as luxury (Geczy et al., 2015).
Market Specific Risks
The market-specific risks consist of interest rate, currency, and global political risks. A company
like Apple Inc. needs to borrow as it needs a lot of cash to run such organizations. Increased
interest rates will increase their cost of debt. As Apple Inc. is a global brand, it needs to earn a lot
from other countries, outside of the USA. The exchange rate and its fluctuation affect the
business significantly. Lastly, geopolitical turmoil impacts all businesses. Political instability,
war, and sanctions also hamper production and sales (Yusoff, 2018).
Stakeholders’ View on the Risks
The management is very likely to be more concerned about the firm-specific risks. As they have
more control over these types of risks and have much to do to reduce them. But they are also
well concerned about the market and sector-specific risks as they also affect the business
significantly. The average investor is concerned about the market risk. As the interest rate, the
exchange rate affects the stock prices significantly and they have invested here for the long term.
The marginal investors are typically cautious about firm-specific risks as they have to frequently
buy and sell the stocks and have to decide whether to keep the money in this firm or to move it to
the others. Price fluctuations are key factors here (Tang & Zhang, 2020).
Risk Management
The managers manage the risks by diversifying the product portfolio, and insurance coverage
and by creating hedge funds against the fluctuations of exchange rates. Investing in the R&D is
also a good step for risk management. The average investors manage their risks by diversifying
their investment portfolio. If you invest in different kinds of firms and industries, the risks are
also distributed properly. The marginal investors have to deal with their risks through calculative
decision-making and diverse portfolios. Before investing, they need to calculate and judge the
company by different profitability ratios and other publicly available financial or non-financial
valid information (Revsineet al., 2021).
Risk Analysis and Measure
Global and regional economic conditions could materially adversely affect the Company. Global
markets for the company’s products and services are highly competitive and subject to rapid
technological change, and Apple may be unable to compete effectively in these markets.
Standard Deviation of Stocks
By calculating the AAPL stocks for the past 1 year, we have found that the standard deviation of
Apple Inc. stock is 1.32%. If we compare the standard deviation of Apple Inc. with the top 10
global companies’ stocks’ standard deviation for the past 1 year, the scenario would be like thisCompany
Standard Deviation
Company
Standard Deviation
Apple Inc.
1.34%
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
0.78%
Microsoft Corp.
1.35%
Meta Platforms Inc.
4.04%
Amazon.com Inc.
1.97%
UnitedHealth Group Inc.
0.95%
Alphabet Inc.
1.58%
Johnson & Johnson
0.97%
Tesla Inc.
3.13%
Home Depot Inc.
1.29%
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
1.02%
The standard deviation of the median S&P 500 stocks is 1.40%. As we can see the standard
deviation of Apple Inc. is lower than most of the top 10 companies in the world and also lower
than the standard deviation of the median S&P 500 companies as well. As such, it is safe to
conclude that Apple stocks are less volatile than most of the competitors in the market. But we
have to keep in mind that the previous performance doesn’t always secure the future. Standard
deviation is just another tool to calculate volatility. Other reliable measures should also be
considered before making investment decisions. (Kim & Chae, 2022)
Credit Ratings and its Deviations
Moody’s Investors Service and S&P Global Ratings Agency are two of the world’s most trusted
credit rating companies. Apple Inc. debt is rated by both of these companies and both have given
Apple Inc. AA+ rating in long-term credit, which is the second-highest score in this segment.
The difference in the rating from these two companies is based on the perspective and weightings
of both agencies. S&P is a more conservative rating agency in terms of giving the highest rating,
so they have set the standard a little higher as they focus more on the future financial stability of
a company. On the other hand, Moody’s is a little flexible compared to the S&P as they rely and
emphasize mostly on the financial performance of the present year. They are both very good and
reliable rating companies. The difference in ratings on Apple by these two is by a very small
margin. Investors should focus on the ratings before making investing decisions and give
importance to the rating differences carefully (Harper, 2019).
Section IV: Risk and Return: Analysis for the Firm
Estimating Risk-Free Rate and Equity Risk Premium
Since AAPL is headquartered in the US, we chose to do our analysis in USD. As such,
we chose the 10-year US government treasury bond as our proxy for the risk-free rate. As of
September 30, 2023, the 10-year yield was 4.572%. We used this number as our risk-free rate.
Regarding the equity risk premium, we did a weighted average calculation based on the
geographic dispersion of Apple’s revenue segments. Below is a screenshot from our Excel file
which shows the overview of how we calculated the ERP for Apple. There is more data on the
actual file itself (attached along with this assignment) which shows more of where we got the
individual country risk premiums from.
Estimating Relative Risk
In this section, we estimated beta in two different ways (regression and bottom-up). For
the regression approach, we downloaded 5-year historical price data for Apple and the S&P 500,
calculated the returns for both, and then regressed Apple’s returns against those of the S&P 500
over the period to find the regression beta. For the bottom-up approach, we pulled Apple’s
revenue segment breakdown from the 10-K, which showed that its revenues come from five
segments (iPhone, Mac, iPad, wearables, and primarily financial services). We screened for
comps sets for each of these segments from CapIQ, took the median beta of the comps sets,
unlevered those median betas, and adjusted for cash to arrive at the pure play betas for each
comps set. We then did a weighted average of those pure play betas in accordance with the
weights for Apple’s revenue segments. Finally, we levered that weighted average beta in
accordance with Apple’s capital structure/tax rate to finish the bottom-up, levered beta
calculation. Regarding the market value of debt for this calculation, we downloaded info on
Apple’s outstanding bonds from Refinitiv and estimated a market value for each of Apple’s
outstanding bond issuances based on the last price. Please note that everything mentioned here is
demonstrated within the Excel file itself. Below are some *brief* screenshots showing a very
high level overview of our work. The remaining details are in the Excel file.
We then used these levered beta numbers to estimate a firm-wide cost of equity figure for
Apple as well as individual cost of equity figures for each of Apple’s divisions. We used the
CAPM to calculate the cost of equity. Below is a screenshot from our Excel file showing how we
did this.
Estimating Default Risk and Cost of Debt
We estimated the default risk through two different methods: using the actual bond rating
as well as our guess of Apple’s synthetic rating. S&P rates Apple as AA+, which correlates to
roughly a 0.85% default spread (more shown in our Excel file). We estimated the synthetic rating
based on Apple’s interest coverage ratio as advised by Damodoran. We found that Apple had a
very, very healthy interest coverage ratio at 35x, well above the 8.5x threshold for an AAA
synthetic rating. We then estimated the default spread based off of Damodoran’s synthetic rating
table. After adding the spreads to the risk-free rate and receiving two (very similar) estimates of
pre-tax cost of debt, we calculated a blended (average) cost of debt between the two methods. All
work is shown in our Excel file. We are avoiding screenshots here because the work is a little too
detailed to be summarized effectively in a single screenshot. Lastly, for the marginal tax rate, we
used the average of Apple’s effective tax rate for the past three years.
Estimating Cost of Capital
We wrapped up this section by using the basic WACC formula to calculate the cost of
capital for the firm. All info is contained in the Excel file. We received a WACC of 9.6% for
Apple compared with 11% on Bloomberg and 8.7% on Refinitiv.
Section V: Estimating Earnings and Cash Flows
For this section, we chose to model out a proposal for a new iPhone. We used the NPV
decision rule to come to the conclusion that Apple should invest in this project because the NPV
is both positive and large.
Above is a screenshot of our simplified DCF for this project proposal. There are plenty of
further explanations and details in our Excel file.
Works Cited

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